Question 1186369
Here's how to break down the pilot's decision-making process:

**1. Probability of Reaching the Emergency Strip:**

*   The odds of reaching the strip vs. mid-air explosion are 1:4. This means the probability of reaching the strip is 1/(1+4) = 1/5 = 0.2.

**2. Probability of Surviving the Emergency Strip Landing:**

*   If he reaches the strip, he lands safely, and assistance is available. So, the probability of survival is 1.

**3. Probability of Surviving the Beach Landing:**

*   Probability of reaching the beach: 0.8
*   Probability of surviving the beach landing *given* he reaches the beach: 0.5
*   Probability of surviving the beach landing *and* reaching the beach: 0.8 * 0.5 = 0.4

**4. Probability of Receiving Assistance After a Beach Landing:**

*   Probability of assistance by air rescue: 0.3
*   Probability of assistance by passing boat: 0.2
*   Probability of *at least* one of these assisting: 0.3 + 0.2 - (0.3 * 0.2) = 0.5 - 0.06 = 0.44

**5. Overall Probability of Survival (Beach Landing):**

*   Probability of surviving beach landing *and* getting assistance: 0.4 * 0.44 = 0.176

**6. Overall Probability of Survival (Emergency Strip):**

*   Probability of reaching the strip: 0.2
*   Probability of surviving the landing: 1
*   Overall survival probability: 0.2 * 1 = 0.2

**7. Decision:**

The pilot has a higher chance of survival (0.2 or 20%) if he attempts to reach the emergency strip compared to attempting a beach landing (0.176 or 17.6%).

**Therefore, the pilot should attempt to reach the emergency strip.**