Question 1204905
Expected value for Extra Point Kick = .932
Expected value for Two Point Conversion = .758
The team should pick extra point.


here's why:


extra point is 1 and opposite team running it back for 2 points is -2.
you get .944 * 1 + .05 * 0 + .006 * -2 = .932
2 point conversion is 2 and opposite team running it back for 2 points is -2.
you get .479 * 2 + .421 * 0 + .1 * -2 = .758


the expected value is the average number of points per play for each type of attempt.


assume 1000 attempts at each type of play.


for the extra point, you get (.944 * 1000 * 1) + (.05 * 1000 * 0) + (.006 * 1000 * -2) = (944 * 1) + (50 * 0) + (6 * -2) = 944 + 0 - 12 = 932 points / 1000 = an average of .932 points per attempt.


for the 2 point conversion, you get (.479 * 1000 * 2) + (.421 * 1000 * 0) + (.1 * 1000 * -2) = (479 * 2) + (421 * 0) + (100 * * -2) = 958 + 0 - 200 = 758 points  / 1000 = an average of .758 points per attempt.


the decision based on the statistics favors going for the extra point.


the decision, however, is based on other considerations as well.
one consideration is:
if they go for the extra point and get it, but the other team is 2 points ahead and the game is over after the play, then going for the extra point is useless because they'll lose the game anyway.  
they have to go for the 2 point conversion just to tie the score and force the game into overtime, even if the probability of success is less than going for the extra point.