Question 1203216
the probbility of guessing the right suit on any draw of the cards is 13/52 because each suit has 13 cards that are members of that suit.


13/52 = 1/4


the probability of guessing the right suit, 4 times out of 4 tries, is 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 = (1/4)^4 = 1/256 * 770 = 3.0078125


you'll bet 1 dollar each time and your expected return is an average of 3.0078125 each turn.
profit is revenue minus expense.
average profit is therefore 2.0078125 dollars.


this is how it works out as far as i can tell.


assume that the probabilities hold and that you bet 256,000 times.
you will have spent 256,000 dollars (one dollar each time).
you will win 769 dollars (256,000 / 256) = 1,000 times for a total of 769,000 dollars.
you will get back an additional 1000 dollars (one dollar for each of the 1,000 times that you won).
your expenditure is 256,000
you get back 1,000 + 769,000 = 770,000
your profit is 770,000 minus 256,000 = 514,000.
divide that by 256,000 times that you bet and your average profit is equal to 514000 / 256000 = 2.0078125 dollars each time.


if i did this correctly, that's a very good bet.