Question 1133309
the bottom line on forecasting is that there is no magic bullet.
here's a lot of information on forecasting in the reference tht you might find interesting.
there are many methods as you will see by just going through the index.
<a href = "https://otexts.com/fpp2/" target = "_blank">https://otexts.com/fpp2/</a>


i found a tool online that uses exponential smoothing.
the results from using the tool indicated that there is a pretty good possibility that the future of 1600 will be exceeded in the next 6 months.


that tool can be found at <a href = "https://www.wessa.net/rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp" target = "_blank">https://www.wessa.net/rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp</a>


i also did a regression analyis using a regression analysis tool online that can be found at <a href = "http://www.xuru.org/rt/LR.asp#CopyPaste" target = "_blank">http://www.xuru.org/rt/LR.asp#CopyPaste</a>


both tools indicate that the probability of exceeding 1600 is there.
even on a straight line projection, the data indicates exceeding 1600 by month 30.
just use the formula by replacing x with 30.


exponential smoothing mimics the pattern of the data.
here again, the projection itself may or may not exceed the 1600 amount, but the high estimates do exceed it.


consequently, i believe the manager should prepare for upgrading capacity in preparation for the possibility that the forecast will exceed 1600.


it's always hard to predict exactly when that would occur, but i don't believe there's any strong evidence that it won't.