Question 1117538
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Your answer to part 1 is absolutely correct.  If you flip a (fair) coin 99 times and get a head each time, the probability of a tail on the 100 flip is still one-half, exactly what the probability was on each of the preceding flips.


With a fair coin, as in one that doesn't have a drop of solder on it to make one side a little heavier, the probability of a specific outcome, let's say a head, on any given trial is one-half.  You have one outcome that you call a success out of two possible outcomes.  Since either outcome is equally likely (c.f. "fair coin"), the long run expectation is getting a head half of the time and a tail the other half.


However, do not confuse the concept of "expected outcome" with "predicting a future outcome".  Every trial is completely independent of any previous trial or trials.


John
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My calculator said it, I believe it, that settles it
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