Question 1051744
A BEHAVIORAL PSYCHOLOGIST CONDUCTS AN EXPERIMENT TO DETERMINE WHETHER OPERANT CONDITIONING TECHNIQUES CAN BE USED TO IMPROVE BALANCE IN PEOPLE WHO CONSIDER THEMSELVES “CLUMSY”. SHE RECRUITS 50 PARTICIPANTS; EACH OF WHOM RESPONDS YES TO THE QUESTION “DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF CLUMSY?” ON A PRE-EXPERIMENTAL QUESTIONNAIRE. HALF THE PARTICIPANTS ARE GIVEN A BALANCE TASK (STAND ON ONE FOOT WITH YOUR ARMS IN THE AIR) WITH THE TIME THEY CAN BALANCE RECORDED. THEY ARE THEN EXCUSED AND ASKED TO RETURN 3 WEEKS LATER. THE OTHER HALF OF THE PARTICIPANTS ARE GIVEN 3 WEEKS OF OPERANT TRAINING DURING A BALANCE EXERICISE. IN THIS TRAINING, THE PARTICIPANTS ARE ASKED TO PERFORM THE BALANCE TASK DESCRIBED ABOVE. EACH TIME THEY CAN BEAT THEIR PREVIOUS BALANCE TIME, THEY RECEIVE $10. AFTER THE 3 WEEK PERIOD, ALL PARTICIPANTS ARE ASKED TO PERFORM THE BALANCE TASK AGAIN. ALPHA IS SET AT .05. THE MEMBERS OF THE TRAINING GROUP CAN BALANCE FOR AN AVERAGE OF 25 SECONDS. MEMBERS OF THE CONTROL GROUP (WHO DID NOT RECEIVE THE TRAINING) CAN BALANCE FOR AN AVERAGE OF 24.3 SECONDS. WHEN THE INFERENTIAL STATISTICAL TEST IS CONDUCTED ON THESE DATA, P = .08 

QUESTION
IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS EXPERIMENT, WHAT EXACTLY IS P THE PROBABILITY OF?
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p is the probability that the training had no effect.
Cheers,
Stan H.
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