Question 1036772
I would use the Poisson distribution.  There is an expected value, the events occur uncommonly, they are proportional to the size of the area investigated, and they could be infinite in number.
For lambda=6, probability of exactly 5 is 0.1606 from the table.
At most 5 is 0.4457.  
More than 5 is the complement, or 0.5543.