Question 921918
Defective = D
Shipped = S

Givens: 
P(!D) = .85
P(D) = .15
P(!S|!D) = .1
P(S|!D) = .9
P(S|D) = .05
P(!S|D) = .95

We use Bayes' theorem to solve:
P(D|S)=(P(S|D)P(D))/(P(S|D)P(D)+P(S|!D)*P(!D)) = .0097