Question 385335
He then assumes that the distribution of the heights of men in China follows a normal distribution (“as it does in the U.S.”), with a mean of 66 inches and a standard deviation equal to 2.7 inches, “a figure that looks about right for that mean.
Using Seligman’s assumptions, calculate the probability that a single adult Chinese man, chosen at random, will be at most 5 feet tall.
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Find the z-value of 5 ft or 60 inches.
z(60) = (60-66)/2.7 = -2.2222..
P(x <= 60 in) = P(z< -2.2222) = normalcdf(-100,-2.2222) = 0.0131
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Do the results in part 1 agree with Seligman’s odds?
the odds were 1/41 = 0.0244
Ans: His odds are twice the derived probability.
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Comment on the validity of Seligman’s assumptions. Are there any basic flaws in his reasoning?
Ans: Pre-revolution statistics might not apply to the current population.
Applying the U.S. stats to China might be questioned.
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Based on the results of parts 1 and 3, do you think that Deng Xiaoping took height into account in selecting his successor?
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His choice is slightly more that 2 standard deviations below the mean.  He
may have been influenced by the fact of his own height.
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cheers,
Stan H.