<PRE><B>Question 141448</B>
The probability is 1 in 4,000,000 that a single auto trip in the United States will result in a fatality. 
Over a lifetime, an average U.S. driver takes 50,000 trips. 
(a) What is the probability of a fatal accident over a lifetime? Explain your reasoning carefully. Hint: Assume independent events. Why might the assumption of independence be violated?
P(accident in 50,000 trips) = np = 50000(1/4000000= 0.0125 
some drivers are more prone to accidents then others.
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(b) Why might a driver be tempted not to use a seat belt “just on this trip”?
He might focus on the extremely low probability of an accident on this trip.
Cheers,
Stan H.
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