Question 977157: A person believes that their spouse is cheating on them. They take note when their spouse comes home late or tired, or is friendly with the opposite sex. They also start to notice times when their spouse is distant or distracted, or when they are simply not feeling talkative. The more the person sees, the more they become convinced that their spouse is in fact cheating on them. However, their spouse is not actually cheating on them. This is an example of a(n). (1 pt.)
a) personal probability
b) confirmation bias
c) illusory correlation
d) both A and C
e) both B and C
Answer by JulietG(1812)   (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website! This is a tough one, because it's open to some interpretation.
Personal probability - A probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur.
Illusory correlation - a belief that two things are associated when there is no actual association.
Confirmation bias - to search for, interpret, or recall information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses.
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It obviously fits the criteria for confirmation bias. She already believes he's cheating on her, and she is looking for evidence that will support that.
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There is not enough evidence to claim illusory correlation. If the problem had read that she noticed when he was friendly with the opposite sex, he was less likely to be talkative to her, that would be an example of illusory correlation. The problem does not give an If/Then situation.
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Personal probability is where the question gets sticky. In my opinion, it may be present. This would be stronger if she had not yet made up her mind that he was cheating, but was likely come to that conclusion whether he was overly/under affectionate, overly/under attentive, or overly/under flirting. She would draw the same conclusion. However, since there is no "both A and B" choice, and we don't see illusory correlation (C), the only possibility of a correct answer is (B) only.
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I will be interested to see other opinions here.
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