SOLUTION: You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.85. With water it will die with probability 0.55. You are

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Question 273687: You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.85. With water it will die with probability 0.55. You are 88 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant.
You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability that the plant died because neighbor forgot to water it?
Answer by jim_thompson5910(35256) (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website!
P(Neighbor forgot AND plant died without water) = P(Neighbor forgot) * P(plant died without water)

P(Neighbor forgot AND plant died without water) = (1-P(Neighbor remembering)) * P(plant died without water)

P(Neighbor forgot AND plant died without water) = (1-0.88) * 0.85

P(Neighbor forgot AND plant died without water) = 0.12 * 0.85

P(Neighbor forgot AND plant died without water) = 0.102

So the probability that the plant died due to the neighbor's neglect is 0.102 which is a 10.2% chance.