SOLUTION: I am completely lost.........I need to use my states unemployment rate (the most current rate I found was 8.2) to determine the probability of finding a new job within 6 months aft

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Question 256487: I am completely lost.........I need to use my states unemployment rate (the most current rate I found was 8.2) to determine the probability of finding a new job within 6 months after being laid off.
I have no idea how to even start this. I understand the very basic principle of determining probability---the number of possible successful outcomes divided by the number of all possible outcomes. I do not understand how to relate that to this problem. I'd appreciate any help I can get.
Thank you very much,
Answer by drk(1908) (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website!
I hope I can clarify for you.
P(unemployed) = .082
P(employed) = .918
Let n = number of months
Probability you unemployed for n months is:
P(U) = .082^(n)
P(u=1) = .082
P(u=2) = .082^2
P(u=3) = .082^3
P(u=4) = .082^4
P(u=5) = .082^5
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we want less than 6 months, so 1<= u < 6. We need to add these probabilities together to get
P(1<=u<6) ~ 0.0893
I think that is what you are looking for.