Question 181962: Tutors, I am not understanding this problem please help:
in Business and Economics
14.16 (a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible
causes. (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain. (d) Make a similar graph for 1992–2003 only.
Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004? (e) Fit a trend model of your
choice to the 1992–2003 data. (f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or
a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set? Airplanes
U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1966–2003
Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes
1966 15,587 1976 15,451 1986 1,495 1996 1,053
1967 13,484 1977 16,904 1987 1,085 1997 1,482
1968 13,556 1978 17,811 1988 1,143 1998 2,115
1969 12,407 1979 17,048 1989 1,535 1999 2,421
1970 7,277 1980 11,877 1990 1,134 2000 2,714
1971 7,346 1981 9,457 1991 1,021 2001 2,538
1972 9,774 1982 4,266 1992 856 2002 2,169
1973 13,646 1983 2,691 1993 870 2003 2,090
1974 14,166 1984 2,431 1994 881
1975 14,056 1985 2,029 1995 1,028
Source: U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, Statistical Databook 2003, General Aviation Manufacturers Association,
Answer by stanbon(75887)   (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website! (a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments.
Put the years on the horizontal axis and the # of Planes on the vertical.
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(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.
1966-1970 sales go down
1971-1979 sales go up
1980-1993 sales go down
1994-2000 sales go up
2001-2004 sales go down
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(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain.
Not sure what youmean by a fitted trend
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(d) Make a similar graph for 1992–2003 only.
You should be able to do that.
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Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004?
?
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(e) Fit a trend model of your
choice to the 1992–2003 data.
(f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or
a judgment forecast.
Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set?
Your opinion
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Cheers,
Stan H.
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Airplanes
U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1966–2003
Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes
1966 15,587 1976 15,451 1986 1,495 1996 1,053
1967 13,484 1977 16,904 1987 1,085 1997 1,482
1968 13,556 1978 17,811 1988 1,143 1998 2,115
1969 12,407 1979 17,048 1989 1,535 1999 2,421
1970 7,277 1980 11,877 1990 1,134 2000 2,714
1971 7,346 1981 9,457 1991 1,021 2001 2,538
1972 9,774 1982 4,266 1992 856 2002 2,169
1973 13,646 1983 2,691 1993 870 2003 2,090
1974 14,166 1984 2,431 1994 881
1975 14,056 1985 2,029 1995 1,028
Source: U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, Statistical Databook 2003, General Aviation Manufacturers Association,
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