.
John was trying to bet Krista $100 that he could pick 7 people at random and at least two of them
would have a birthday in the same month. Krista did the math before making the bet and found that
there was the following chance of her winning the bet.
a. 11%
b. 89%
c. 4.6%
d. 95.4%
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Consider 7 people A, B, C, D, E, F and G.
Person A has birthday in some of 12 months, X.
The probability that person B has birthday in some other month Y, different from X, is
.
The probability that person C has birthday in some other month Z, different from X and Y, is
.
The probability that person D has birthday in some other month W, different from X, Y and Z, is
.
Thinking this way, we get that the probability for 7 persons to have birthdays in different months is
,
which is the product of 6 factors; the structure of the formula is clear.
Making calculations, you get value P = 0.111400463, or 0.11 = 11% rounded.
So, the probability that 7 randomly chosen people have birthdays in different months is 0.11, or 11%.
The probability that of 7 randomly chosen people at least two of them have
birthdays in the same month is the complement to 0.11, i.e. 1-0.11 = 0.89.
Thus the probability that John wins is 0.89, or 89%;
the probability that Krista wins is 0.11, or 11%.
ANSWER. The probability that Krista wins is 0.11 = 11%.
Solved.
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If you want to learn more about this subject, read the lesson
- Coinciding birthdays
in this site.