Question 1201096: In each exam question, a student receives zero, one, or two points with probabilities p0, p1, and p2 = 1 - p0 - p1, respectively. The exam consists of n questions. What is the probability of passing the exam by scoring at least 2n - 2 points? (p0 = 0.36, p1 = 0.15, n = 9)
Answer by ikleyn(52818) (Show Source):
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In each exam question, a student receives zero, one, or two points with probabilities
p0, p1, and p2 = 1 - p0 - p1, respectively. The exam consists of n questions.
What is the probability of passing the exam by scoring at least 2n - 2 points?
(p0 = 0.36, p1 = 0.15, n = 9)
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In this problem, getting (2n-2) points means loosing 2 (two) points in n answers.
Two points can be lose in two ways: EITHER two answers among n answers are 1-point answers
(with the probability of p1) OR one answer among n answers is zero-point answer (with the probability p0).
These events are disjoint, so
P(to lose two points) = P(two answers of n answers are 1-point answers; the rest n-2 answers are 2-point answers) +
+ P(one answer is 0-point answer; the rest n-1 answers are 2-point answers) =
= + .
For the given values, we have = 1 - 0.36-0.15 = 0.49; therefore
P(to lose two points) = = = 0.016261076. (1)
Similarly, getting (2n-1) points means loosing 1 (one) point in n answers
P(to lose one point) = = = 0.004486446. (2)
Getting 2n points means loosing nothing (same as getting (2n) two-points answers) and has the probability
P(to lose nothing) = = = 0.001628414. (3)
Now, tho answer the problem's question, you only need to add the numbers (1), (2) and (3)
P = 0.016261076 + 0.004486446 + 0.001628414 = 0.02238 (rounded).
Solved.
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