SOLUTION: In each exam question, a student receives zero, one, or two points with probabilities p0, p1, and p2 = 1 - p0 - p1, respectively. The exam consists of n questions. What is the prob

Algebra ->  Probability-and-statistics -> SOLUTION: In each exam question, a student receives zero, one, or two points with probabilities p0, p1, and p2 = 1 - p0 - p1, respectively. The exam consists of n questions. What is the prob      Log On


   



Question 1201096: In each exam question, a student receives zero, one, or two points with probabilities p0, p1, and p2 = 1 - p0 - p1, respectively. The exam consists of n questions. What is the probability of passing the exam by scoring at least 2n - 2 points? (p0 = 0.36, p1 = 0.15, n = 9)
Answer by ikleyn(52818) About Me  (Show Source):
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In each exam question, a student receives zero, one, or two points with probabilities
p0, p1, and p2 = 1 - p0 - p1, respectively. The exam consists of n questions.
What is the probability of passing the exam by scoring at least 2n - 2 points?
(p0 = 0.36, p1 = 0.15, n = 9)
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In this problem, getting (2n-2) points means loosing 2 (two) points in n answers.


Two points can be lose in two ways: EITHER two answers among n answers are 1-point answers 
(with the probability of p1) OR one answer among n answers is zero-point answer (with the probability p0).


These events are disjoint, so

    P(to lose two points) =   P(two answers of n answers are 1-point answers; the rest n-2 answers are 2-point answers) + 

                            + P(one answer is 0-point answer; the rest n-1 answers are 2-point answers) = 

                          =  C%5Bn%5D%5E2%2Ap%5B1%5D%5E2%2Ap%5B2%5D%5E%28n-2%29 + C%5Bn%5D%5E1%2Ap%5B0%5D%2Ap%5B2%5D%5E%28n-1%29.


For the given values, we have p%5B2%5D = 1 - 0.36-0.15 = 0.49;  therefore

    P(to lose two points) = C%5B9%5D%5E2%2A0.15%5E2%2A0.49%5E7+%2B+C%5B9%5D%5E1%2A0.36%2A0.49%5E8 = 36%2A0.15%5E2%2A0.49%5E7+%2B+9%2A0.36%2A0.49%5E8 = 0.016261076.   (1)



Similarly,  getting (2n-1) points means loosing 1 (one) point in n answers

    P(to lose one point) = C%5B9%5D%5E1%2Ap%5B1%5D%5E1%2Ap%5B2%5D%5E8 = 9%2A0.15%2A0.49%5E8 = 0.004486446.    (2)



Getting 2n points means loosing nothing (same as getting (2n) two-points answers) and has the probability

    P(to lose nothing) = p%5B2%5D%5E9 = 0.49%5E9 = 0.001628414.    (3)



Now, tho answer the problem's question, you only need to add the numbers (1), (2) and (3)

    P = 0.016261076 + 0.004486446 + 0.001628414 = 0.02238 (rounded).

Solved.