SOLUTION: Given a family with four children, find the probability of the event. The oldest two are girls, given that the oldest is a girl. What is the probability that the oldest is a girl?

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Question 1164266: Given a family with four children, find the probability of the event.
The oldest two are girls, given that the oldest is a girl. What is the probability that the oldest is a girl?

Found 2 solutions by ikleyn, greenestamps:
Answer by ikleyn(52788) About Me  (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website!
.

Without any theorizing,  based  EXCLUSIVELY  on  common sense,  it is  CLEAR  and  OBVIOUS

that the probability the problem asks for is   1%2F2.

It can not be differently.


And the condition that the family has four children is  IRRELEVANT --- it is simply a kind of  "white noise".



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To tutor @greenestamps

    Dear @greenestamps,  my experience at this forum just convinced me, that it is useless to wait an answer from the visitors,

    as they do not understand the contents of their posts, at all and as a rule.


        // For 90% of them, their role and functioning at this forum is "copy-paste-submit".   And nothing more // (and nothing else).


    Let me answer your question, instead of them.


    The second phrase, which you ask about, is the description of the event,

     while the last, third phrase is the real question.

Tutor @ikleyn



Answer by greenestamps(13200) About Me  (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website!


The problem is stated very poorly.

Are there two questions here?

Or is there one question -- in the last sentence -- and the middle sentence has nothing to do with the question?