SOLUTION: Compute the inductive probability of the following argument assuming that
epistemic probabilities defer to base rates and chances. (Hint: this is really just
a Bayes’ theorem q
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-> SOLUTION: Compute the inductive probability of the following argument assuming that
epistemic probabilities defer to base rates and chances. (Hint: this is really just
a Bayes’ theorem q
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Question 1160758: Compute the inductive probability of the following argument assuming that
epistemic probabilities defer to base rates and chances. (Hint: this is really just
a Bayes’ theorem question.)
1. One in a thousand people have disease X.
2. The chance of a positive test result is 99% for those that have disease X.
3. The chance of a positive test result is 5% for those that don’t have disease
X.
4. Alice just tested positive.
5. Thus, Alice has disease X. Answer by Boreal(15235) (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website! Look at 10000 people
---------T+--------T- ------Total
D+------9.9-------0.1--------10
D- ----499.5----9490.5 ---9990
Total-- 509.4------9490.6--10000
People who test positive (509.4), 9.9 of them have the disease, 2% probability of having the disease.
