SOLUTION: Supposed a certain game is fair and costs $8 if you lose and has a net payoff of $4 if you win. The only possible outcomes of the game are winning and losing. What is the probab

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Question 1110074: Supposed a certain game is fair and costs $8 if you lose and has a net payoff of $4 if you win. The only possible outcomes of the game are winning and losing.
What is the probability of winning?

Answer by greenestamps(13200) About Me  (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website!


A fair game means you break even after several games. Just looking at the numbers, it takes 2 wins at $4 each to balance 1 loss at -$8. So you need to win 2 out of every 3 games to break even. That makes the probability of winning 2/3.

Formally, you want the expected value of a game to be 0. If the probability of winning is x, then the probability of losing is (1-x); for the expected value to be 0, we need to have
4%28x%29%2B%28-8%29%281-x%29+=+0
4x-8%2B8x+=+0
12x-8+=+0
12x+=+8
x+=+2%2F3