SOLUTION: I would like to share with you the research question I'm after.
I am an agronomist and currently working on a research project dealing with weeds.
I'm interested in knowin
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I am an agronomist and currently working on a research project dealing with weeds.
I'm interested in knowin
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Question 1061968: I would like to share with you the research question I'm after.
I am an agronomist and currently working on a research project dealing with weeds.
I'm interested in knowing
What is the probability that a weed species (wi) develops resistance to the herbicide H given that the two following events have occurred:
Event B: the weed has been reported as developing resistance to at least one herbicide in the same chemical family as that of the herbicide H.
[Note: for this purpose, based on published research on the weed resistance, I set probability of resistance to one herbicide in the family=0.08; to two herbicides in the family=0.16; three herbicides in the family = 0.24 and so on until prob=1.0]
Event C: Weed experts, based on their research experience, affirm that the weed will develop resistance to the herbicide H. About 50 experts have been given their input on how likely they think the weed is in developing resistance to the herbicide. Of course, this probability is empirical.
Based on that, I had originally written the following probability equation:
P(A|B and C)= P(A intersection B intersection C)/P(B intersection C).
However, since it is likely that the opinion of the expert on the likelihood of the weed i developing resistance to the herbicide H is influenced by what is published in the literature then I changed the equation to:
P(A|B Union C)
Since I have no theory on how B and C are related, I don't know if calculating C is even possible.There is where I'm stuck.
