Question 1021443: A new medical test has been designed to detect the presence of the mysterious Brainlesserian disease. Among those who have the disease, the probability that the disease will be detected by the new test is 0.7. However, the probability that the test will erroneously indicate the presence of the disease in those who do not actually have it is 0.02. It is estimated that 11 % of the population who take this test have the disease.
If the test administered to an individual is positive, what is the probability that the person actually has the disease?
Answer by Boreal(15235)   (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website! Take 10000 people, 1100 will have the disease
===T+===T-====Total
D+ 770==330===1100
D- 178==8722==8900
Tot948==9052=10000
Now what they want is positive test meaning.
Well, 948 tests will be positive, and 770 of them have the disease, so the probability of having the disease is 81.2%
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