Question 1203338: Topic : Discrete Random Variable (Geometric Distribution)
Repeated independent trials are carried out in which the probability of success in each trial is
0.66 . Correct to 3 significant figures, find the probability that the first success occurs:
(a) On the third trial
(b) On or before the second trial
(c) After the third trial
Answer by ikleyn(52776) (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website! .
Topic : Discrete Random Variable (Geometric Distribution)
Repeated independent trials are carried out in which the probability of success in each trial is
0.66 . Correct to 3 significant figures, find the probability that the first success occurs:
(a) On the third trial
(b) On or before the second trial
(c) After the third trial
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Let Y means successful trial; N means unsuccessful trial.
(a) In case (a), they want you find the probability of this event: NNY.
So, 1st trial is N (with the probability 1-0.66 = 0.34);
2nd trial is N (with the probability 1-0.66 = 0.34);
3rd trial is Y (with the probability 0.66.
The probability of the event NNY is P(NNY) = 0.34*0.34*0.66 = 0.076296 (precise value). ANSWER to question (a)
(b) The favorable events are Y NY
(two favorable events, and they, obviously, are disjoint).
So, the probability under the problem's question is
P = P(Y) + P(NY) = 0.66 + 0.34*0.66 = 0.8844 (precise value). ANSWER to question (b)
(c) After solutions (a) and (b), you are just prepared ENOUGH to understand that
P = P(N) + P(NN) + P(NNN) + P(NNNY) + P(NNNNY) + P(NNNNNY) + . . . (infinite series).
Next, first three terms of this infinite sum are
P(N) = 0.34;
P(NN) = 0.34*0.34 = 0.1156;
P(NNN) = 0.34^3 = 0.039304.
The following terms P(NNNY) + P(NNNNY) + P(NNNNNY) + . . . (infinite series)
represent the sum of an INFINITE geometric progression with the first term a = 0.34^3*0.66
and the common ratio of r = 0.34.
So, the sum of these following terms is
P(NNNY) + P(NNNNY) + P(NNNNNY) + . . . (infinite series) = = = = = 0.039304 (rounded).
Finally, the answer to question (c) is this sum
P = 0.34 + 0.1156 + 0.039304 + 0.039304 = 0.534208 (precise value),
or 0.534, rounded as requested. ANSWER to question (c)
Solved.
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