Question 1133967: Suppose that you actually observe 3 or more of the sample of 7 bridges with inspection ratings of 4 or below in 2020. What inference can you make? Why? Select the correct answer below.
A.
Since the probability of this observation occurring is so small, it can be concluded that the forecast of 9% is too large. There would probably be less than 9%.
B.
Since the probability of this observation occurring is so large, it can be concluded that the forecast of 9% is too small. There would probably be more than 9%.
C.
Since the probability of this observation occurring is so large, it can be concluded that the forecast of 9% is too large. There would probably be less than 9%.
D.
Since the probability of this observation occurring is so small, it can be concluded that the forecast of 9% is too small. There would probably be more than 9%.
This is a follow up question for Boreal. Thank you for your help Boreal.
Answer by Boreal(15235)   (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website! Without looking at the choices, I would say the true probability is probably greater than 9%, since 0.019 as a probability of 3 or more of the bridges is uncommon (one might choose a cutoff point for what is "uncommon" before the measurement),
In any case, the probability of finding 3 or more is very small given 9%, so that 9% is too small.
D
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