SOLUTION: There are two competing proposals for the redevelopment of a piece of vacant land in Accra. One is to construct an office block on the site and the other is to construct a casino.

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Question 875839: There are two competing proposals for the redevelopment of a piece of vacant land in Accra. One is to construct an office block on the site and the other is to construct a casino. You have been asked to give advice on which is the better investment. The two projects generate the following cash flows
Year
Office
Casino
year 0 office -300 casino -300
year 1 office -30 casino -400
year 2 office 90 casino 50
year 3 office 180 casino 100
year 4 office 215 casino 800
a) What is the Net Present Value of each project using a discount rate of 6%?
(5 marks)
b) What is the Internal Rate of Return of each project (to the nearest 1%)?
(5 marks)
c) Explain the advice you would give to your client if their target rate of return was 15% (5 marks)
d) What are strengths and weaknesses of NPV and the IRR investment decision criteria? (8 marks)
e) What are sunk costs and how are they treated in analyzing cash flows?
(5 marks)
f) Explain the difference between sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis

Answer by Theo(13342) About Me  (Show Source):
You can put this solution on YOUR website!
i haven't done these in a while but i'll give it a shot.
i still may be able to answer most of your questions, if not all.

a) What is the Net Present Value of each project using a discount rate of 6%?
(5 marks)
b) What is the Internal Rate of Return of each project (to the nearest 1%)?
(5 marks)

your office cash flow is:
-300
-30
90
180
215

your casino cash flow is:
-300
-400
50
100
800

the net present value and internal rate of return of your office cash flow is:
	       cash flow	npv at 6%	npv at 15%
time point			
0	       -300	       -300	        -300
1	       -30	       -28.30188679	-26.08695652
2	        90	        80.0996796	 68.05293006
3	        180	        151.1314709	 118.3529218
4	        215	        170.3001376	 122.9269478
			
npv at 6%  >>>>>   73.22940135	
npv at 15% >>>>>  -16.75415682
iror       >>>>>   13.0609%


the net present value and internal rate of return of your casino cash flow is:
               cash flow	npv at 6%	npv at 15%
time point			
0	       -300	        -300	        -300
1	       -400	        -377.3584906	-347.826087
2	        50	         44.499822	 37.80718336
3	        100	         83.9619283	 65.75162324
4	        800	         633.6749306	 457.4025965
			
npv at 6%  >>>>>    84.77819033	
npv at 15% >>>>>   -86.86468387
iror       >>>>>    9.9602%

c) Explain the advice you would give to your client if their target rate of return was 15% (5 marks)
Neither cash flow returns a rate of return of 15% in 4 years.
If that is the minimum rate of return the client can stand, amd the maximum number of years in which to get it, then the client should look to some other project to provide it, since neither one meets the minimum requirements.

Looking at the cash flows, it appears that the fourth year brings in what might be the recurring profit for both scenarios.

If the client can wait another year to determine their profits, they might be able to meet their minimum rate of return of 15%.

As a sensitivity, a fifth year was added with the same profit as the fourth year.

The results of that sensitivity analysis showed that, if the client waited another year to determine their profit, they would attain the 15% in both scenarios. This assumes no additional expenses over what they had in the fourth year.

The recommendation to the client would be to go with the casino project, because that promises the greater return in the long run, and also promises to bring in the greater amount of profit ($800 per year versus $215 per year).

The 5 year cash flow results for the office project are shown below:
	        cash flow	npv at 6%	   npv at 15%
time point			
0	        -300	        -300	-300
1	        -30	        -28.30188679	   -26.08695652
2	         90	         80.0996796	    68.05293006
3	         180	         151.1314709	    118.3529218
4	         215	         170.3001376	    122.9269478
5	         215	         160.6605072	    106.8929981
			
npv at 6%  >>>>>   233.8899085	
npv at 15% >>>>>   90.13884126
iror       >>>>>   23.2302%	


The 5 year cash flow results for the casino project are shown below:
	         cash flow	npv at 6%	   npv at 15%
time point			
0	         -300	        -300	           -300
1	         -400	        -377.3584906	   -347.826087
2	          50	         44.499822	    37.80718336
3	          100	         83.9619283	    65.75162324
4	          800	         633.6749306	    457.4025965
5	          800	         597.8065383	    397.7413882
			
npv at 6%  >>>>>   682.5847286	
npv at 15% >>>>>   310.8767044
iror       >>>>>   27.8047%	


d) What are strengths and weaknesses of NPV and the IRR investment decision criteria? (8 marks)

Here's a reference that might help you with that:

http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/corporate-finance/advantages-disadvantages-npv-net-present-value-irr-internal-rate-of-return.asp

e) What are sunk costs and how are they treated in analyzing cash flows?
(5 marks)

Sunk costs are already spent and are common to both plans so they are usually not considered in studies that are considering alternatives for new projects.
Here's a reference that talks about that:
https://www.boundless.com/finance/capital-budgeting/cash-flow-analysis-and-other-factors/sunk-costs/
f) Explain the difference between sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis.

Hee's a reference that talks about scenario analysis versus sensitivity analysis.

http://www.scenarioanalysis.net/Scenario-Analysis-Vs-Sensitivity-Analysis.html

here's another reference:

http://www.onlinedegreesupport.com/sensitivity_scenario_analysis.html

Here's another one that might help tie the first two together.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Difference_between_Sensitivity_analysis_and_Scenario_analysis

IROR calculations set the NPV to 0 and then solve for the rate of return that will provide that.

I used excel to provide the cash flow results.

there are online calculator that will do the same thing for you.

One such calculator can be found here:

http://www.datadynamica.com/irr.asp

There are other. All you have to do is perform an online search for them.