SOLUTION: On a key ring are 6 keys, only one of which will open a certain door. If the first and second keys have been tried and have failed to unlock the door. What is the probability that

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Question 1158734: On a key ring are 6 keys, only one of which will open a certain door. If the first and second keys have been tried and have failed to unlock the door. What is the probability that it can be unlocked by the third key?
Answer by ikleyn(52800)   (Show Source): You can put this solution on YOUR website!
.

            unlocked / meaning (Dictionary) :   "undo the lock of (something) by using a key"

             * * * Actually,  as formulated,  this text can be interpreted in at least 3 (three) different ways. * * *


Way $1.  The keys are INDISTINGUISHABLE, and the problem asks what is the probability that the door will be open at the third trial.


             (Here I make a sub-assumption, that the person who unlocks, is not a total idiot and KNOWS which two keys of the total 6 keys
             he (or she) used in the first two trials - although 6 keys are indistinguishable).
    


Way #2.  The keys are NUMBERED, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 at the ring; the person uses them consequently in this order,
          and the problem asks if the key #3 will unlock the door at the third trial.



Way #3.  The keys are NUMBERED, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 at the ring; the person uses them non-necessary in this order, 
         and the problem asks if the key #3 will unlock the door at some trial from the third to sixth.



               Now, if the problem admits so many interpretations, it means ONLY ONE THING:

               the formulation IS NOT a Math problem, at all   (and, in particular, is composed unprofessionally).




In version 1 of the formulation, the answer is  P = ,  and it is OBVIOUS.


In version 2 of the formulation, the answer is  the same P = ,  and it is OBVIOUS, too.


In version 3  of the formulation, the question can be reformulated in this way:

    What is the probability that the key #3 is that UNIQUE good key among remaining 4 keys.


    Again, in this case, the probability under the question is  P = ,
        and it is OBVIOUS, again.

Thus,  FORTUNATELY,  the answer is the same for each and every of these  3  interpretations.

Solved,  answered and explained in the most thorough way.

------------------

The serious deficiency of this post is in that it  DOES  NOT  describe the probabilistic experiment with thorough precision,
as it is required.


/\/\/\/\/\/\

Post solution note:   you may seek, try and use more complicated ways,  solutions and models,  if you wish.

It will not change the final answer, until your interpretation is under that 3 cases considered above.



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