document.write( "<A HREF=/cgi-bin/jump-to-question.mpl?question=1126022>Question 1126022</A>: <I><SPAN STYLE=\"word-break: break-all;\"> Following the Republican National&#8203; Convention, a poll of voters in a Central Illinois community  showed that 56.8&#8203;% would choose the Republican ticket to win over the Democrat ticket no matter whom the Democrats chose for&#8203; vice-president. The margin of error was 3.8 percentage points. Should the Democrats expect to lose Central&#8203; Illinois?<BR>\n" );
document.write( "A.54.9&#8203;% to 58.7&#8203;%; Yes\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "B. 49.2&#8203;% to 56.8&#8203;%; No\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "C.56.8&#8203;% to 60.6&#8203;%; Yes\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "D.53&#8203;% to 60.6&#8203;%; Yes </SPAN>\n" );
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document.write( "We don't know the true population proportion of people who would vote Republican unless we did a full census of voters of Central Illinois. The next best thing is to do a sample. With a sample, there's usually a tendency to be a bit off the mark. The best guess we have is that \"56.8?% would choose the Republican ticket\" with some margin of error to help set up the interval. \r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "56.8% is the midpoint of the interval<BR>\n" );
document.write( "The margin of error is 3.8 percentage points<BR>\n" );
document.write( "Subtract the midpoint and the margin of error: 56.8% - 3.8% = 53%<BR>\n" );
document.write( "Add the midpoint to the margin of error: 56.8% + 3.8% = 60.6%\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "So the interval spans from 53% to 60.6% which represents the likely window of possible percentages of people who vote Republican. \r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "The best case scenarios for the Democrats is that the Republican ticket gets 53% of the vote, which means that even in this scenario, they would lose Central Illinois. The only way they would stand a chance is if the percentage dipped below 50%\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "<b><font color=red size=4>Answer: 53% to 60.6%; Yes</font></b><BR>\n" );
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