document.write( "<A HREF=/cgi-bin/jump-to-question.mpl?question=1012226>Question 1012226</A>: <I><SPAN STYLE=\"word-break: break-all;\"> 10. Parts and materials for the skis made by the Downhill Adventures Company are supplied by two suppliers.   Supplier A’s materials made up 30% of what is used, with Supplier B providing the rest.  Past records indicate that 15% of Supplier  A’s materials are defective and 10% of B’s are defective.  Since it is impossible to tell which supplier the materials came from once they are in inventory , the manager wants to know which supplier more likely supplied the defective materials the foreman has brought to his attention </SPAN>\n" );
document.write( "</I><HR><TABLE width=100%><TR><TD><B><A HREF=http://www.algebra.com/>Algebra.Com's</A> Answer #628108 by </B><A HREF=/tutors/aboutme.mpl?userid=Theo><B>Theo(13342)</B></A><img src=\"/images/stars/stars-13.gif\" alt=\"\" >&nbsp;<A HREF=/tutors/aboutme.mpl?userid=Theo><IMG SRC=http://www.algebra.com/images/aboutme-small.gif BORDER=0 alt=\"About Me\" VALIGN=MIDDLE></A>&nbsp;<IMG SRC=http://www.algebra.com/cgi-bin/show-face.mpl?user=Theo><BR>You can <A HREF=\"/cgi-bin/embed-solution.mpl?show=1&solution=628108\">put this solution on YOUR website!</A><BR><SPAN STYLE=\"word-break: break-all;\"> 30% of the parts came from supplier A.<BR>\n" );
document.write( "70% of the parts came from supplier B.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "15% of the parts from supplier A are defective on the average.<BR>\n" );
document.write( "10% of the parts from supplier B are defective on the average.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "it apears that the defective parts would most likely come from supplier B.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "here's why.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "suppose inventory contained 1000 parts, 30% came from supplier A and 70% from supplier B.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "this means that 300 parts came from supplier A and 700 came from supplier B.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "since 15% of the parts from supplier A are defective, then .15 * 300 = 45 parts are defective from supplier A.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "since 10% of the parts from supplier B are defective, then .10 * 700 = 70 parts are defective from supplier B.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "so, out of the 1000 parts, there are 45 defective from supplier A and 70 defective from supplier B.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "if you take a random part from the inventory, the probability it will be defective is 45 + 70 = 115 / 1000 = 11.5%.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "the probability it will be defective and from supplier A is 45/1000 = .045.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "the probability it will be defective and frm supplier B is 70/1000 = .07.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "if the part is defective, the probability that it will be from supplier A is 45/115 = 39.13%.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "if the part is defective, the probability that it will be from supplier B is 70/115 = 60.87%.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "the probability is higher that the defective part will be from supplier B.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "while supplier B is more reliable than supplier A, there are a lot more parts in inventory from supplier B which makes the probability that the defective part will be from supplier B higher.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( ".15 * .3 = .045\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( ".10 * .7 = .07\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( " </SPAN>\n" );
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