document.write( "<A HREF=/cgi-bin/jump-to-question.mpl?question=552300>Question 552300</A>: <I><SPAN STYLE=\"word-break: break-all;\"> Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania prognosticator, has a 28% success rate over the last 60 years of forecasting whether or not there will be more winter by checking for his shadow.\r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "If these predictions are independent, what is the probability that Phil is wrong in his guess 3 years in a row?<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "</I><HR><TABLE width=100%><TR><TD><B><A HREF=http://www.algebra.com/>Algebra.Com's</A> Answer #360216 by </B><A HREF=/tutors/aboutme.mpl?userid=stanbon><B>stanbon(75887)</B></A><img src=\"/images/stars/stars-13.gif\" alt=\"\" >&nbsp;<A HREF=/tutors/aboutme.mpl?userid=stanbon><IMG SRC=http://www.algebra.com/images/aboutme-small.gif BORDER=0 alt=\"About Me\" VALIGN=MIDDLE></A>&nbsp;<IMG SRC=http://www.algebra.com/images/nopicture.jpg><BR>You can <A HREF=\"/cgi-bin/embed-solution.mpl?show=1&solution=360216\">put this solution on YOUR website!</A><BR><SPAN STYLE=\"word-break: break-all;\"> Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania prognosticator, has a 28% success rate over the last 60 years of forecasting whether or not there will be more winter by checking for his shadow. <BR>\n" );
document.write( "If these predictions are independent, what is the probability that Phil is wrong in his guess 3 years in a row?<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "P(wrong) = 0.72<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "P(wrong 3 successive times) = 0.72^3 = 0.3732<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "Cheers,<BR>\n" );
document.write( "Stan H.<BR>\n" );
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