document.write( "<A HREF=/cgi-bin/jump-to-question.mpl?question=213853>Question 213853</A>This question is from textbook <A HREF=http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/9780072966930/algebrahomeworkh>Applied Statistics</A><BR>\n" );
document.write( ": <I><SPAN STYLE=\"word-break: break-all;\"> The probability is 1 in 4,000,000 that a single auto trip in the United States will result in a fatality. Over a lifetime, an average U.S. driver takes 50,000 trips. (a) What is the probability of a fatal accident over a lifetime? Explain your reasoning carefully. Why might the assumption of indepenent be violated? (b) Why might a driver be tempted not to use a seat belt \"just on this trip\". \r<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "</I><HR><TABLE width=100%><TR><TD><B><A HREF=http://www.algebra.com/>Algebra.Com's</A> Answer #161646 by </B><A HREF=/tutors/aboutme.mpl?userid=stanbon><B>stanbon(75887)</B></A><img src=\"/images/stars/stars-13.gif\" alt=\"\" >&nbsp;<A HREF=/tutors/aboutme.mpl?userid=stanbon><IMG SRC=http://www.algebra.com/images/aboutme-small.gif BORDER=0 alt=\"About Me\" VALIGN=MIDDLE></A>&nbsp;<IMG SRC=http://www.algebra.com/images/nopicture.jpg><BR>You can <A HREF=\"/cgi-bin/embed-solution.mpl?show=1&solution=161646\">put this solution on YOUR website!</A><BR><SPAN STYLE=\"word-break: break-all;\"> The probability is 1 in 4,000,000 that a single auto trip in the United States will result in a fatality. Over a lifetime, an average U.S. driver takes 50,000 trips. <BR>\n" );
document.write( "(a) What is the probability of a fatal accident over a lifetime? <BR>\n" );
document.write( "Ans: 50,000C1(1/4,000,000)^1(3,999,999/4,000,000)^49,999 = 0.01234<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "Explain your reasoning carefully. <BR>\n" );
document.write( "It is a binomial problem with 50,000 trials, prob. of an accident<BR>\n" );
document.write( "on each trial is 4,000,000^-1, number of \"successes\" = 1.<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "Why might the assumption of independence be violated? <BR>\n" );
document.write( "The probability of having an accident when young is different <BR>\n" );
document.write( "than probability of accident when older.<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "(b) Why might a driver be tempted not to use a seat belt \"just on this trip\".<BR>\n" );
document.write( "Because probability on that one trip is 1/4,000,000<BR>\n" );
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document.write( "Cheers,<BR>\n" );
document.write( "Stan H.  </SPAN>\n" );
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