SOLUTION: PLESE SOLVE USING PROBABILITY TREE IF YOU CAN. LAST WEEK I FELT SYMPTOMS CONSISTENT WITH"SCHARGEL" SYNDROM. TODAY I BOUGHT A STANDARD SALIVA TEST FOR THIS CONDITION AND IT CAME

Question 910809: PLESE SOLVE USING PROBABILITY TREE IF YOU CAN.
LAST WEEK I FELT SYMPTOMS CONSISTENT WITH"SCHARGEL" SYNDROM. TODAY I BOUGHT A STANDARD SALIVA TEST FOR THIS CONDITION AND IT CAME UP NEGATIVE. HOWEVER, I'M STILL CONCERNED THAT I MIGHT HAVE THIS MEDICAL PROBLEM BECAUSE THE RESULT COULD HAVE BEEN A FALSE NEGATIVE. IF THE SENSITIVITY OF THE TEST IS PR(POSITIVE RESULT/HAVING THE DISEASE)=0.97, AND THE SPECIFICITY IS PR(NEGATIVE RESULT/NOT HAVING THE DISEASE)=0.95 AND THE PROPORTION OF PEOPLE IN THE POPULATION WITH "SCHARGEL SYNDROM IS PR(HAVING DISEASE)=0.06; WHAT IS THE PROBABILTY THAT I ACTUALLY HAVE THE DISEASE? (I.E. CALCULATE PR(HAVING DISEASE/NEGATIVE RESULT)?
Answer by ewatrrr(24785) (Show Source): You can put this solution on YOUR website!
THE SPECIFICITY IS PR(NEGATIVE RESULT/NOT HAVING THE DISEASE)=0.95
THE SPECIFICITY IS PR(NEGATIVE RESULT/HAVING THE DISEASE)=0.05
this says (and please DO NOT use CAPS on this site)
P(testing negative And having the disease) = 0r .3% chance
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