SOLUTION: I need help understaning how to solve these types of problems...can someone show me thanks... Problem #1 A coin is tossed 6 times. Find the probabilities of getting the followi

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Question 87391: I need help understaning how to solve these types of problems...can someone show me thanks...
Problem #1
A coin is tossed 6 times. Find the probabilities of getting the following.
a) Exactly 3 heads
Problem #2
Quality Control A factory tests a random sample of 20 transistors
for defective transistors. The probability that a particular
transistor will be defective has been established by past
experience as .05.
a) What is the probability that there are no defective transistors
in the sample?
Problem#3
Flu Inoculations A flu vaccine has a probability of 80%
of preventing a person who is inoculated from getting the
flu. A county health office inoculates 83 people. Find the
probabilities of the following.
a. Exactly 10 of the people inoculated get the flu.
b. No more than 4 of the people inoculated get the flu.
c. None of the people inoculated get the flu.

Found 2 solutions by longjonsilver, Edwin McCravy:
Answer by longjonsilver(2297)   (Show Source): You can put this solution on YOUR website!
these are all examples of a binomial distribution where you have 2 outcomes: a coin is tossed so HEAD or TAIL, an experiment is done so SUCCESS or FAIL etc.

If you drew out all the possible outcomes on a probability tree you could find the answers that way, diagramatically but it is tedious for more convoluted questions like yours here.

All the examples though follow a simple mathematical process:

Let x = the event we are interested in, so P(x=0) is the probability that x occurs no times. For this to be true, say out of 6 attempts then the "other" outcome would occur 6 times.

Similarly, if x occurred 2 times then the other 4 occurrences must be the "other" outcome... the total always adds up to 6, since there are 6 "attempts"

If one outcome is x then other outcome is y and seeing as there are only 2 outcomes possible, then their probabilities have to add up to 1.

So, all the possible outcomes are:

P(x=0) = 6C0 * (x)^0 * (y)^6
P(x=1) = 6C1 * (x)^1 * (y)^5
P(x=2) = 6C2 * (x)^2 * (y)^4
P(x=3) = 6C3 * (x)^3 * (y)^3
P(x=4) = 6C4 * (x)^4 * (y)^2
P(x=5) = 6C5 * (x)^5 * (y)^1
P(x=6) = 6C6 * (x)^6 * (y)^0

Can you see the very simple pattern here... there are 3 parts to each:
there is the probability of X raised to a power and the probability of y raised to another power and those 2 powers always add up to 6 (in this case).

The 6C0 etc is the "combinations"... you can get this from a formula or on some calculators or from Pascals Triangle.

eg consider tossing 3 coins. How many heads?
HHH --> one way...one combination
mathematically, 3C3 = 1

HHT HTH THH --> three ways... three combinations
mathematically, 3C2 = 3

HTT THT TTH --> three ways... three combinations
mathematically, 3C1 = 3

TTT --> one way...one combination
mathematically, 3C0 = 1

================================================================
So, enough of the tutorial:

1. coin tossed 6 times. P(h=3) where h = number of heads and t = number of tails
P(h) = 1/2
P(t) = 1/2
P(h=3) = 6C3 * P(h)^3 * P(t)^3

--> 6C3 = (6*5*4)/(3*2*1) = 20
So, P(h=3) = 6C3 * P(h)^3 * P(t)^3 becomes
P(h=3) = 20 * (1/2)^3 * (1/2)^3
P(h=3) = 20 * (1/8) * (1/8)
P(h=3) = 20 * 1/64
P(h=3) = 20/64
P(h=3) = 10/32
P(h=3) = 5/16

2. Quality Control A factory tests a random sample of 20 transistors
for defective transistors. The probability that a particular
transistor will be defective has been established by past
experience as .05.
a) What is the probability that there are no defective transistors
in the sample?

2 outcomes are:
P(Defective) = 0.05
P(OK) = 0.95

Let X = number of defective transistors:
P(X=0) = 20C0 * P(defective)^0 * P(OK)^20
P(X=0) = 20C0 * (0.05)^0 * (0.95)^20
P(X=0) = 1 * 1 * (0.95)^20
P(X=0) = (0.95)^20
use a calculator to find this.

3. Flu Inoculations A flu vaccine has a probability of 80%
of preventing a person who is inoculated from getting the
flu. A county health office inoculates 83 people. Find the
probabilities of the following.
a. Exactly 10 of the people inoculated get the flu.
b. No more than 4 of the people inoculated get the flu.
c. None of the people inoculated get the flu.

Let X = get flu
so Y = not get flu
--> i have defined them this way round because the question asks about people NOT getting flu.

P(X) = 0.20
P(Y) = 0.80

a. P(X=10) = 83C10 * P(X)^10 * P(Y)^73
P(X=10) = 83C10 * (0.2)^10 * (0.8)^73
whatever this equals using your calculator.

b. probability that no more than 4 people get the flu means we need to add up each probability for "no-one", "only 1 person gets flu", "only 2 people get flu", "only 3 people get flu" and "only 4 people get flu"

So you will have to work out
P(X=0)
P(X=1)
P(X=2)
P(X=3)
P(X=4)
and add these up... tedious, yes :-)

Good luck.

and try c. yourself :-)

cheers
Jon

Answer by Edwin McCravy(20056)   (Show Source): You can put this solution on YOUR website!

I need help understaning how to solve these types of 
problems...can someone show me thanks... 

I can't tell whether you are to use binomial tables, 
formulas, TI graphical calculator, Excel, or normal tables 
to approximate the binomial probabilities.  So I'll just 
do them all by formula.

Problem #1
A coin is tossed 6 times. Find the probabilities of 
getting the following. 
a) Exactly 3 heads.

First we decide what is to be called a "success".
Here we will let a success be "getting a head".  
The probability of getting 1 success (head) in 1 
trial is .          

The probability of getting exactly x successes in 
n trials, where the probability of getting 1 success 
in 1 trial is p is given by this formula:



The probability of getting exactly 3 successes in 
6 trials, where the probability of getting 1 success 
in 1 trial is , so we substitute
x=3, n=6, and p= 














5/16


Problem #2
Quality Control A factory tests a random sample of 
20 transistors for defective transistors. The 
probability that a particular transistor will be 
defective has been established by past experience 
as .05.

a) What is the probability that there are no defective 
transistors in the sample? 

Another binomial problem.

First we decide what is to be called a "success".  
Here we will let a success be "getting a good 
(non-defective) transistor."  

We are not given the probability of 1 success in 1 
trial. Instead we are given the probability of 1 failure 
in 1 trial is ,05, so the probability of 1 success
in 1 trial is 1-.05 or .95 

The probability of getting exactly x successes in 
n trials, where the probability of getting 1 success 
in 1 trial is p is given by the formula as for the 
other problem:



The probability of getting exactly 20 successes in 
20 trials. So the probability of getting 1 success 
in 1 trial is , so we substitute
x=20, n=20, and p= 












(((.3584859224}}}

Problem#3
Flu Inoculations A flu vaccine has a probability of 80%
of preventing a person who is inoculated from getting the
flu. A county health office inoculates 83 people. Find the
probabilities of the following. 
a. Exactly 10 of the people inoculated get the flu.

First we decide what is to be called a "success".  Here 
we will let a success be "not getting the flu".  
The probability of getting 1 success in 1 trial is 80% 
or .          

As before, the probability of getting exactly x successes 
in n trials, where the probability of getting 1 success 
in 1 trial is p is given by this formula:



We are not being asked for the probability of exactly 
10 successes, but are asked for exactly 10 failures.  
So since there are 83 trials, we want the probability 
that there are 83 - 10 or 73 successes.

the probability of 1 success in 1 trial is .8.

The probability of getting exactly 73 successes in 83 
trials, where the probability of getting 1 success in 
1 trial is .8, so we substitute
x=73, n=83, and p=.8 











That comes out to .020984176

b. No more than 4 of the people inoculated get the flu.

This means we have either exactly 83 successes, exactly 
82 successes, exactly 81 successes, or exactly 80 successes.

To find P(83 or 82 or 91 or 80) we must add

P(83) + P(82) + P(81) + P(80)

I won't go through all the calculations, for they are the same:

For P(83), we use n = 83, x = 83, p = .8, that gives 9.046256972×10-9

For P(82), we use n = 83, x = 82, p = .8, that gives 1.877098322×10-7

For P(81), we use n = 83, x = 81, p = .8, that gives 1.92402578×10-6

For P(80), we use n = 83, x = 80, p = .8, that gives 1.29871717401×10-5

Adding those up gives 1.510795588×10-5

c. None of the people inoculated get the flu.

That was answered above, as that is the probability 
of 83 successes in 83 trials:

For P(83), we use n = 83, x = 83, p = .8, that gives 9.046256972×10-9

Edwin

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