Hi,
Recommend quickly doing a little table to keep things straight
cone cup
Choc 45% 75% 25%
SBerry 30% 60% 40%
vanilla 25% 40% 60%
Probability of the following choices
chocolate chosen = .45
strawberry chosen = .30
vanilla chosen = .20
ice cream on a cone =
ice cream in a cup = 1 - P(cone)
strawberry cone =
Obviously the chocolate cone the favorite