SOLUTION: Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania prognosticator, has a 28% success rate over the last 60 years of forecasting whether or not there will be more winter by checking for his shadow
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Question 552300: Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania prognosticator, has a 28% success rate over the last 60 years of forecasting whether or not there will be more winter by checking for his shadow.
If these predictions are independent, what is the probability that Phil is wrong in his guess 3 years in a row?
Answer by stanbon(75887) (Show Source): You can put this solution on YOUR website!
Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania prognosticator, has a 28% success rate over the last 60 years of forecasting whether or not there will be more winter by checking for his shadow.
If these predictions are independent, what is the probability that Phil is wrong in his guess 3 years in a row?
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P(wrong) = 0.72
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P(wrong 3 successive times) = 0.72^3 = 0.3732
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Cheers,
Stan H.
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