Students will get 3 points for each correct answer; lose 1 point for each incorrect answer; and receive no points for unanswered questions. A student does not know the correct answer for one question. Is it to her advantage or disadvantage to guess an answer?
This is an expectation problem:
The problem does not specify how many choices there are for the answer
to the question. So I will suppose there are n choices for the answer.
Then the probability of guessing correctly is and the
probability of guessing incorrectly is 1 - .
Possibility x (points) P(x) Expectation = x*P(x)
Answering correctly 3 1/n 3/n
Answering incorrectly -1 1-1/n -1(1-1/n)
So the total expectation on guessing is
Since 0 points are gotten if the problem is left blank, we
want to know how many choices n must be in order for the
expection to be greater than 0. So we set that > 0
Multiply through by n
So if there are less than 4 choices for the answer to each question,
it is to the student's advantage to guess. If there are exactly 4
choices per question, then the expectation will be 0 either way.
However if there are more than 4 choices for each question, it is
better to leave the question unanswered.
Edwin