How to find the probability of matching 4 out of 5 numbers from a lottery with number 1 to 45
There are 5 numbers that match the winning set and 40 which don't
P(matching exactly 4 and mismatching 1)
The number of ways to choose the 4 matching ones is C(5,4)
For each of those C(5,4) ways to choose the 4 matching ones,
there are C(40,1) ways of choosing the nonmatching one.
So there are C(5,4)*C(40,1) ways to choose exactly 4 matching ones
and exactly one non-matching one.
There are C(45,5) ways of choosing ANY 5
So the probability is
C(5,4)*C(40,1) 5*40 200
---------------- = --------- = --------- = .0001636984053
C(45,5) 1221759 1221759
Not too likely. Studying math teaches you that gambling
without using skill to put the probability of winning in
your favor is never wise.
Edwin