SOLUTION: The tourist industry is subject to enormous seasonal variation. A hotel in North Queensland has recorded its occupancy rate for each quarter during the past 5 years. These data are

Question 254809: The tourist industry is subject to enormous seasonal variation. A hotel in North Queensland has recorded its occupancy rate for each quarter during the past 5 years. These data are shown in the accompanying table.
Table 1: Occupancy rate
Year,2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008,
Quarter 1, 0.261, 0.295, 0.312, 0.362, 0.396
Quarter 2, 0.302, 0.324, 0.345, 0.388, 0.418
Quarter 3, 0.502, 0.568, 0.598, 0.696, 0.782
Quarter 4, 0.568, 0.615, 0.698, 0.738, 0.802

QUESTION A
What is the centred moving average that would correspond to Quarter 4 in 2006?
QUESTION B
What is the adjusted seasonal index for Quarter 4 __________%?

QUESTION C
The trend line for this decomposition model was calculated to be Y = 0.36806 + 0.01195 T (where T represents time). What would be the coefficient of determination (R2) for this trend line? (Select the closest correct answer.)
0.2973 (i.e. 29.73%)
0.5452 (i.e. 54.52%)
0.7165 (i.e. 71.65%)
0.9886 (i.e. 98.86%)
QUESTION D
What would be the forecast in Quarter 4, 2009 using the trend line given previously (recall that to three decimal places it was Y = 0.368 + 0.012T) and the relevant adjusted seasonal index?
QUESTION E
If we exponentially smooth the data in Table 1 with a smoothing constant of 0.2, the smoothed value for Quarter 2 in 2005 would be?
QUESTION F
If we exponentially smooth the data in Table 1 with a smoothing constant of 0.2, the forecast for Quarter 1 2009 would be?
Answer by annjoying(1) (Show Source): You can put this solution on YOUR website!

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