let M and N be two events, if P(M) =0.12, P(N|M)=0.23, and P(N|M')=0.17 This can be done with formulas, but the thinking is easier with a Venn diagram, using reduced sample spaces. [Formulas get you mixed up!] Let the probabilities of the 4 regions be a,b,c,d.P(M') = c+d P(M|N) = b/(b+c) P(M'|N) = c/(b+c) P(M) = 0.12 = a+b P(M') = c+d = 1-P(M) = 1-0.12 = 0.88 c+d = 0.88 P(N|M) = 0.23 = b/(a+b) = b/0.12 0.23 = b/0.12 (0.23)(0.12) = b 0.0276 = b Substitute in 0.12 = a+b 0.12 = a+0.0276 0.0924 = a P(N|M') = 0.17 = c/(c+d) = c/0.88 0.17 = c/0.88 (0.17)(0.88) = c 0.1496 = c Substitute in c+d = 0.88 0.1496+d = 0.88 d = 0.7304 P(M|N) = b/(b+c) = 0.0276/(0.0276+0.1496) = 0.0276/0.1772 = 0.1557562077 P(M'|N) = c/(b+c) = 0.1496/(0.0276+0.1496) = 0.1496/0.1772 = 0.8442437923 Edwin