You are given two events, A and B with the following conditions.
P(A | B) = 0.30, P(B | A) = 0.60, P(A ∩ B) = 0.18.
a) Find P(B)
P(A∩B) = 0.18 = P(B∩A)
P(A|B) = P(A∩B)/P(B) = 0.18/P(B) = 0.30
0.18 = (0.30)P(B)
0.18/0.30 = P(B)
.60 = P(B)
b) Are A and B independent? Why?
Let's find out. A and B will be independent
if and only if P(A∩B) = P(A)∙P(B), so we substitute:
0.18 = (0.30)(0.60)
0.18 = 0.18
Yes they are equal so A and B are independent.
c) Find P(B∩A’)
P(A') = 1-P(A) = 1-0.30 = 0.70
Since B and A are independent so are B and A' (proved below)
so
P(B∩A’) = P(B)∙P(A’) = (0.60)(0.70) = 0.42.
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For your information here is how we prove that
if B and A are independent so are B and A'
P(B∩A) = P(B)∙P(A) by the definition of independence
= P(B)[1-P(A')] since P(A) = 1-P(A')
= P(B)-P(B)∙P(A')
So,
(1) P(B)P(A') = P(B)-P(B∩A)
Since B∩A' = B-B∩A and B∩A ⊂ B,
(2) P(B∩A') = P(B)-P(B∩A)
From (1) and (2), P(B∩A') = P(B)∙P(A'), so B and A' are independent.
Edwin