I'm thinking that's wrong and that you should make a probability tree diagram of all possible outcomes, with the probability of going along each branch (line) written on the branch:The successful outcomes are boxed in red. The probability of getting the highest highlighted 4 on the right is to go along the branch from START to 1 (roll 1 first), with probability 1/4, and then go along the branch from 1 to the 4 (roll 4 second), with another probability of 1/4. So the probability of getting the 4 by rolling a 1 first and then a 4, is gotten by multiplying the 1/4 to go from START to 1, times the 1/4 to go from the 1 to the 4. It is similar for the other outcomes on the far right So the probability of the upper highlighted 4 is (1/4)(1/4) = 1/16. the probability of the upper highlighted 5 is (1/4)(1/4) = 1/16. the probability of the other highlighted 4 is (1/4)(1/4) = 1/16. the probability of the other highlighted 5 is (1/4)(1/4) = 1/16. the probability of the highlighted 6 is (1/4)(1/4) = 1/16. plus the probability of the highlighted 4 on the bottom, the case where a 4 was rolled first and then you stopped is 1/4, so the desired probability is the sum of all those probabilities: 1/16 + 1/16 + 1/16 + 1/6 + 1/16 + 1/4 = 9/16. Edwin