You're asking for the probability of the fourth birth order in the list below of all 32 possible birth orders. There is only 1 successful birth orders out of those 32 possible birth orders listed below. The number of possible birth orders is 32 because: There are 2 ways that the 1st birth could turn out. There are 2 ways that the 2nd birth could turn out. There are 2 ways that the 3rd birth could turn out. There are 2 ways that the 4th birth could turn out. There are 2 ways that the 5th birth could turn out. 2x2x2x2x2 = 25 = 32 1. BBBBB 2. BBBBG 3. BBBGB 4. BBBGG <--The only successful birth order. 5. BBGBB 6. BBGBG 7. BBGGB 8. BBGGG 9. BGBBB 10. BGBBG 11. BGBGB 12. BGBGG 13. BGGBB 14. BGGBG 15. BGGGB 16. BGGGG 17. GBBBB 18. GBBBG 19. GBBGB 20. GBBGG 21. GBGBB 22. GBGBG 23. GBGGB 24. GBGGG 25. GGBBB 26. GGBBG 27. GGBGB 28. GGBGG 29. GGGBB 30. GGGBG 31. GGGGB 32. GGGGG So what fraction represents 1 SUCCESSFUL way out of 32 POSSIBLE ways? Edwin