SOLUTION: I run a golf pool. 150 pro golfers are listed and divided in 30 boxes of 5 players.
Each entrant must pick one player from each box (30 picks). We have 192 entrants playing the p
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Question 1001783: I run a golf pool. 150 pro golfers are listed and divided in 30 boxes of 5 players.
Each entrant must pick one player from each box (30 picks). We have 192 entrants playing the pool this year and two entrants have identical picks. What are the odds of that assuming no obvious bias for golfer ability?
Thanks,
Dave
Answer by solver91311(24713) (Show Source): You can put this solution on YOUR website!
This is a binomial distribution where you want the probability of 30 successes in 30 trials where the probability of success on any given trial is 0.20 (one in five).
\ =\ {{n}\choose{k}}\left(p\right)^k\left(1\,-\,p\right)^{n\,-\,k})
Plugging in your numbers:
\ =\ {{30}\choose{30}}\left(0.2\right)^{30}\left(0.8\right)^{0}\ =\ 0.2^{30}\ \approx\ 0.000000000000000000001074)
Expressing it in terms of odds, that is roughly 999,999,999,999,999,999,999 to 1 against. A DNA match isn't that conclusive. Somebody peeked.
John
My calculator said it, I believe it, that settles it
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